Bitcoin’s price rose to the $19,888 mark on September 21, 2022, before losing the $19,000 mark again. According to @rektcapital, the worst case scenario for bitcoin would involve a drop to the 11,000 level by the end of the year.
The cryptocurrency is trading at $18,798 at the time of this writing. The price has fallen 4.33% in the last 7 days. The price has fallen 0.32% in the last 24 hours. In the last hour, the price has increased by 0.61%. Bitcoin is 72.72% lower than ATH.
Bitcoin price analysis
The price of bitcoin has fallen 72% since the last all-time high and the question is again whether the bottom has been reached in the current cycle. For trader and analyst @rektcapital, the bottom price of the leading crypto-currency will be recorded in this last quarter of the year.
The analyst points to the weak price action in recent days, reflected by the fact that USD 20,000 has ceased to be a price support to become part of the new resistance range. The specialist says that the possible range of bitcoin’s floor would be between $16,985 and $23,467.
Among the reasons for this assumption, @rektcapital pointed out this Monday, September 19, on its Twitter account that bitcoin recorded a floor price in 2015, 547 days before the next halving. In 2018, bitcoin bottomed out 517 days before the third halving.
If a new bitcoin low is to be recorded between 517 and 547 days before bitcoin’s next halving in April 2024, then such a low must occur in the last quarter of this year, says @rektcapital.
September 21 was also marked by the FOMC’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in benchmark US interest rates. This news could send the price of bitcoin into a new bearish phase.
The announcement appears to have benefited the dollar (DXY), which is currently at 111.32, at the expense of risky assets. DXY is hitting a 20-year high, while uncertainty currently reigns in the BTC markets on a daily basis.
According to a technical analysis by Sally Ho, traders continue to expect substantial stops below the 17803, 17701, 16966, and 16503 areas, important technical levels associated with historic bullish pressure near the 3858 and 9819 areas. Following the recent selling pressure, other important technical downside areas include the 16990.14, 14500.15 and 10432.73 zones.
- The technical support level should be near 16990.14/ 14500.15/ 10432.73, and the stop loss level should be below.
- The technical resistance level should be near 25256.96/ 27455.20/ 32383.96, and the stop loss level should be above.
Bitcoin price prediction according to @rektcapital
While warning that historical data is unreliable in predicting future price action, @rektcapital refers in its latest market newsletter to the so-called “death cross,” a bearish indicator of an asset’s price, which occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average, crosses downward into the 200-day moving average.
The analyst says that price withdrawals in previous bearish crossovers have ranged from -42% to -73%. While it is impossible to predict how far the price will fall, the worst case scenario would involve a drop to the 11,000 level, says @rektcapital.